Concept
How does learning that the swimmer is a junior change the probability of a non-UMW winner?
Stephen Davies, Ph.D. Version 2.2.2 Through Discrete Mathematics A Cool Brisk Walk / Chapter 1
"U | J )? Pr ( U | J ) = Pr ( U ∩ J ) Pr ( J ) or . 3 . 4 = 3 4 = .75 , way higher than the .3 from item 11. Learning that the swimmer is a ju- nior makes the likelihood of a non- UMW winner leap sky high."
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