Bifalgorithm post · Brisk · Chapter 1

How is probability calculated when all outcomes are equally likely?

How is probability calculated when all outcomes are equally likely? (Brisk · Chapter 1) — "A common special case occurs when all outcomes are equally likely. T…

Ideas in this flowchart

  • Probability when all outcomes are equally likely
  • The shortcut applies only when every possible outcome has the same probability.
  • If there are N outcomes, where N = |Ω|, then Pr(A) = |A|/N.
  • The probability depends on the event's cardinality divided by the total number of outcomes.
  • Common contexts with equally likely outcomes
  • Rolling dice, flipping coins, and dealing cards can produce equally likely outcomes.
  • Encryption keys can be generated by choosing equally likely possibilities.
  • Alternate network routing paths can be selected with equal probability.
  • Enemy starting positions in a first-person shooter level can be determined randomly.
  • For a fair deck, the probability of drawing a face card is Pr(F) = 12/52 = .231.
  • The shortcut cannot be used when outcomes are not equally frequent.
  • A password beginning with q does not necessarily have probability 1/26.
  • Solving such a problem requires knowing how often each alphabet letter occurs.
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How is probability calculated when all outcomes are equally likely?

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Brisk

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"A common special case occurs when all outcomes are equally likely. This usually happens when we roll dice, flip coins, or deal cards, since the probability of rolling a 3 is normally the same as rolling a 6, and the probability of being dealt the 10♠ is the same as the Q♦. It may also happen when we generate encryption keys, choose between alternate network routing paths, or determine the initial positions of enemies in a first-person shooter level. If there are N possible outcomes, where N = |Ω|, then the probability of any event A is Pr(A) = |A|/N. It is the size, or cardinality, of the event set that matters, and the ratio of this number to the total number of outcomes is the probability. For example, when dealing a card from a fair deck, the probability of drawing a face card is Pr(F) = |F|/N = 12/52 = .231. This shortcut only applies when the probability of each outcome is the same. We could not say that the probability of a user’s password starting with the letter q is 1/26, because passwords surely do not contain all letters with equal frequency. The only way to solve a problem like this is to know how often each letter of the alphabet occurs."

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